Atlanta Dream Women vs Connecticut Sun Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Atlanta Dream Women
vs
Connecticut Sun Women
Projected score
91-78
Home89%
Away11%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Atlanta Dream Women vs Connecticut Sun Women?

Basketball: Atlanta Dream Women vs Connecticut Sun Women (NBA Women). Projected 91-78. Atlanta Dream Women is favoured at 89%. Our projected total is 169 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Atlanta Dream Women by 13Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAtlanta Dream WomenConnecticut Sun Women
Wins89%11%
By 6+77%6%
By 11+62%3%
By 16+45%1%
By 21+30%0%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Atlanta Dream Women

Season record
27-15
Points per game
90.3
Points allowed
85.5
Rest
18 d
  1. W89-81Minnesota Lynx Women
  2. L83-101Portland Women
  3. W78-71Los Angeles Sparks Women
  4. W99-89Phoenix Mercury Women
  5. W124-88Los Angeles Sparks Women

Connecticut Sun Women

Season record
11-31
Points per game
78.8
Points allowed
87.3
Rest
17 d
  1. L71-97Dallas Wings Women
  2. L91-111Indiana Fever Women
  3. L64-89Golden State Valkyries Women
  4. W87-81Chicago Sky Women
  5. L68-77Los Angeles Sparks Women

Head to head

  1. Aug 13, 26Connecticut Sun Women69Atlanta Dream Women104
  2. Jun 2, 26Atlanta Dream Women91Connecticut Sun Women75
  3. Sep 10, 25Connecticut Sun Women72Atlanta Dream Women88
  4. Sep 8, 25Atlanta Dream Women87Connecticut Sun Women62
  5. Jun 6, 25Connecticut Sun Women84Atlanta Dream Women76

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology