Freseros de Irapuato vs Soles basketball prediction

LNBP
Freseros de Irapuato
vs
Soles
Projected score
81-89
Home22%
Away78%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Freseros de Irapuato vs Soles?

Basketball: Freseros de Irapuato vs Soles (LNBP). Projected 81-89. Soles is favoured at 78%. Our projected total is 170 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Soles by 8Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginFreseros de IrapuatoSoles
Wins22%78%
By 6+13%63%
By 11+7%47%
By 16+3%32%
By 21+1%19%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Freseros de Irapuato

Season record
8-10
Points per game
87.2
Points allowed
90.2
Rest
3 d
  1. W90-86Lobos Plateados
  2. W82-71Lobos Plateados
  3. L67-77Astros
  4. L117-129Astros
  5. L84-87Gambusinos

Soles

Season record
14-4
Points per game
84.7
Points allowed
75.1
Rest
2 d
  1. L74-81Astros
  2. W90-76Astros
  3. W89-86El Calor de Cancun
  4. W102-75El Calor de Cancun
  5. L74-78Correcaminos UAT Victoria

Head to head

  1. Aug 3, 25Soles88Freseros de Irapuato67
  2. Aug 3, 25Soles78Freseros de Irapuato56
  3. Aug 25, 24Freseros de Irapuato101Soles102
  4. Aug 24, 24Freseros de Irapuato94Soles83

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology