Basilan Steel vs Meycauayan basketball prediction

Projected score

81-87

Home19%

Away81%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Basilan Steel vs Meycauayan?

Basketball: Basilan Steel vs Meycauayan (MPBL). Projected 81-87. Meycauayan is favoured at 81%. Our projected total is 168 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Generated Sep 11, 2026, 00:45 UTCModel basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

Our projection: Meycauayan by 6Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.

Show the numbers

Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
Margin	Basilan Steel	Meycauayan
Wins	19%	81%
By 6+	13%	66%
By 11+	8%	50%
By 16+	5%	36%
By 21+	3%	24%

Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Basilan Steel

Season record: 9-8
Points per game: 83.5
Points allowed: 89.1
Rest: 4 d

L76-97Quezon Huskers
W97-86Negros Hacienderos
W75-74Paranaque Patriots
W102-89Manila Batang Quiapo
L71-103Batang Kankaloo

Meycauayan

Season record: 14-10
Points per game: 83.1
Points allowed: 80.1
Rest: 5 d

W80-79Cebu Greats
W91-80Bulacan Kuyas
W88-82GenSan Warriors
L73-80Ilagan Isabela Cowboys
W91-80Paranaque Patriots

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology