Abejas vs Gambusinos basketball prediction

LNBP
Abejas
vs
Gambusinos
Projected score
84-80
Home63%
Away37%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Abejas vs Gambusinos?

Basketball: Abejas vs Gambusinos (LNBP). Projected 84-80. Abejas is favoured at 63%. Our projected total is 164 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Abejas by 4Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAbejasGambusinos
Wins63%37%
By 6+48%24%
By 11+33%14%
By 16+20%7%
By 21+11%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Abejas

Season record
7-9
Points per game
85.5
Points allowed
86.6
Rest
12 d
  1. W76-75Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  2. L84-95Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  3. L73-75Diablos Rojos
  4. W81-73Diablos Rojos
  5. W106-87Dorados

Gambusinos

Season record
5-11
Points per game
75.6
Points allowed
81.1
Rest
11 d
  1. L75-85Lobos Plateados
  2. L65-79Lobos Plateados
  3. W87-84Freseros de Irapuato
  4. L73-77Freseros de Irapuato
  5. L82-106Fuerza Regia de Monterrey

Head to head

  1. Aug 16, 25Abejas94Gambusinos95
  2. Aug 15, 25Abejas66Gambusinos77

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology