Santos vs Fuerza Regia de Monterrey basketball prediction

LNBP
Santos
vs
Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
Projected score
86-90
Home33%
Away67%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Santos vs Fuerza Regia de Monterrey?

Basketball: Santos vs Fuerza Regia de Monterrey (LNBP). Projected 86-90. Fuerza Regia de Monterrey is favoured at 67%. Our projected total is 176 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Fuerza Regia de Monterrey by 4Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginSantosFuerza Regia de Monterrey
Wins33%67%
By 6+22%50%
By 11+13%35%
By 16+7%22%
By 21+3%12%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Santos

Season record
6-10
Points per game
81.9
Points allowed
88
Rest
11 d
  1. W95-82Diablos Rojos
  2. L87-97Diablos Rojos
  3. L94-102Dorados
  4. W87-63Dorados
  5. L88-104Panteras

Fuerza Regia de Monterrey

Season record
10-6
Points per game
88.4
Points allowed
87.3
Rest
11 d
  1. L75-76Abejas
  2. W95-84Abejas
  3. W91-90Lobos Plateados
  4. L88-97Lobos Plateados
  5. W106-82Gambusinos

Head to head

  1. Jul 30, 25Santos82Fuerza Regia de Monterrey97
  2. Jul 29, 25Santos82Fuerza Regia de Monterrey103
  3. Sep 22, 24Fuerza Regia de Monterrey88Santos67
  4. Sep 21, 24Fuerza Regia de Monterrey90Santos77

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology