San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder basketball prediction

Bet of the Day

Our pick:Under 244.5 incl. overtime

88%Odds 1.27

Score prediction115-107

Bookmaker odds incl. overtime

Home1.73

Away2.12

Total points 231.5

Over1.91

Under1.89

Spread -2.5

Home1.92

Away1.89

Methodology

Match analysis

Under 244.5 points, Including Overtime, rests on how the Spurs and the Thunder scored against each other in late May: five games, and none went higher than 241. The forecast for San Antonio is a 115-107 home win, 222 points, more than 20 under the line.

241 was the ceiling in May

The series ran from 23 May to 31 May and San Antonio took three of the five games. The totals came in at 231, 185, 241, 209 and 214 in date order, an average of 216. Only the 127-114 Thunder win on 27 May got within ten points of this line, and it still stopped under it.

Oklahoma City's 254 against Milwaukee

One game in either team's October run went past 244.5: the Thunder's 128-126 home defeat by the Bucks on 8 October. Their other four finished between 205 and 226, and their latest outing was 89 points in a 116-89 loss at Houston. San Antonio's five October games ranged from 200 to 239.

Nine points between price and chance

At 1.27 the Under needs about 79 percent to break even before the margin, against an 88% chance. The Spurs are forecast for 115 and the Thunder for 107, close to what each has scored per game in October, 114.4 and 109.8.

Written by the Superior Basketball Desk