Fuerza Regia de Monterrey vs Gambusinos basketball prediction

LNBPFull time
Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
106:82
Gambusinos
Projected score
88-81
Home73%
Away27%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Fuerza Regia de Monterrey vs Gambusinos?

Basketball: Fuerza Regia de Monterrey vs Gambusinos (LNBP). Projected 88-81. Fuerza Regia de Monterrey is favoured at 73%. Our projected total is 169 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Fuerza Regia de Monterrey by 7Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginFuerza Regia de MonterreyGambusinos
Wins73%27%
By 6+57%17%
By 11+41%9%
By 16+26%5%
By 21+15%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Fuerza Regia de Monterrey

Season record
7-4
Points per game
87.3
Points allowed
87.9
Rest
1 dback-to-back
  1. L74-82Gambusinos
  2. W101-100Freseros de Irapuato
  3. W105-94Freseros de Irapuato
  4. W95-94Diablos Rojos
  5. W76-64Diablos Rojos

Gambusinos

Season record
4-7
Points per game
75.2
Points allowed
78.7
Rest
1 dback-to-back
  1. W82-74Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  2. L66-71Diablos Rojos
  3. W83-80Diablos Rojos
  4. L77-91Dorados
  5. L81-89Dorados

Head to head

  1. Aug 20, 26Fuerza Regia de Monterrey74Gambusinos82
  2. Aug 3, 25Fuerza Regia de Monterrey99Gambusinos79
  3. Aug 2, 25Fuerza Regia de Monterrey97Gambusinos83

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

Final, including overtimeFuerza Regia de Monterrey 106, Gambusinos 82winner call correct

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology