Cerro vs Racing Montevideo Prediction - September 6, 2026
Alternative:0-1
Goals: Under 2.51.50
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Racing Montevideo?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 0-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Racing Montevideo are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Four straight meetings between Cerro and Racing Montevideo have been decided by a single goal, and Racing's shorter two days' rest against Cerro's four adds to Superior's case for Under 2.5 goals at 1.5 in their Primera Division Apertura meeting on 6 September, a 74 percent probability.
Every one of the last four meetings was decided by one goal
The head to head between these two has been remarkably tight: four straight meetings decided by a single goal, three of them 1-0 or 1-0 the other way. Racing's shorter rest, two days against Cerro's four, adds to the case for a cagey, low-event match rather than the kind of open game that produces a flurry of goals.
Racing have won three of the last four meetings
LOSES IF: three or more goals combined. Racing's continental push gives them a reason to press for a second goal if they get an early lead, and their one loss in this head to head run, a 1-2 defeat, shows the game can open up when a side chases the result. If Racing go ahead early and Cerro have to commit players forward against the relegation clock, the tight one-goal pattern of the last four meetings can break.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
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More Primera División - Apertura Predictions
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 26, 2026 | Cerro | 1 - 0 | Racing Montevideo |
| March 8, 2026 | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 0 | Cerro |
| January 15, 2026 | Racing Montevideo | 2 - 1 | Cerro |
| August 10, 2025 | Cerro | 1 - 2 | Racing Montevideo |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | +13 | 49 | ||
| 2 | 25 | +16 | 47 | ||
| 3 | 26 | +14 | 46 | ||
| 4 | 15 | +7 | 27 | ||
| 4 | 25 | +13 | 44 | ||
| 5 | 26 | +3 | 42 | ||
| 6 | 26 | +4 | 41 | ||
| 7 | 26 | +11 | 39 | ||
| 8 | 26 | -3 | 36 | ||
| 9 | 26 | +4 | 34 | ||
| 10 | 26 | -1 | 32 | ||
| 11 | 26 | -6 | 30 | ||
| 12 | 26 | -9 | 30 | ||
| 13 | 26 | -8 | 28 | ||
| 14 | 26 | -22 | 26 | ||
| 15 | 26 | -10 | 24 | ||
| 16 | 26 | -19 | 19 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 26 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 32 | 19 | 13 | 49 | WLDDD |
| 2 | Peñarol Montevideo | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 47 | |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 26 | 14 | 46 | DLDWW |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 27 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 44 | LWWLW |
| 5 | Wanderers | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 42 | WWWDW |
| 6 | Club Nacional | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 33 | 4 | 41 | LDWLW |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 39 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 36 | DLDDW |
| 9 | Albion FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 34 | DLDWL |
| 10 | Cerro Largo | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 32 | LWDDW |
| 11 | Juventud | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 30 | DWLDL |
| 12 | Boston River | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 30 | LLDDL |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 28 | LDDDL |
| 14 | Cerro | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 26 | WWLLW |
| 15 | Danubio | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 24 | DLDDD |
| 16 | Progreso | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 19 | WLLWL |