Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares Prediction - September 22, 2026

Primera AColombiaFull time
Independiente Medellin
2:1
Jaguares
Correct scoreOur pick
2-0

Alternative:1-0

Match Winner: Home1.38Won

Bookmaker odds

Home1.31price falling, opened at 1.34
Draw4.95price rising, opened at 4.85
Away8.75price rising, opened at 8.30

Market move since Sep 19. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.13price falling, opened at 1.18
Under 1.54.55price rising, opened at 3.88
Over 2.51.57price falling, opened at 1.69
Under 2.52.29price rising, opened at 2.11
Over 3.52.35price falling, opened at 2.59
Under 3.51.47price rising, opened at 1.39
Both teams to score
Yes1.87price falling, opened at 1.98
No1.83price rising, opened at 1.74
Odd/Even
Odd1.87price rising, opened at 1.85
Even1.83price falling, opened at 1.85
Handicap
Home -1.51.91
Away +1.51.81

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?

The model's leading scoreline is 2 - 0, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Independiente Medellin are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-10Methodology

Match highlights

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Match analysis

Independiente Medellin host Jaguares on 22 September, and Superior's model makes the home win its pick at 1.38, a 68 percent read in Colombia's Primera A. Medellin have not lost to Jaguares in three meetings, and they arrive averaging 2.4 goals a game to Jaguares' 1.8.

Medellin have won both of their last two trips to Jaguares

Independiente Medellin's record against this opponent reads two away wins and a home draw across the last three meetings, home advantage never even needed to get the job done. They arrive on the back of three wins in five, including a 4-1 win at Deportivo Pasto and a 3-0 win at Deportivo Pereira, and average 2.4 goals a game to Jaguares' 1.8. Four days' rest since their last outing against Bucaramanga removes any fatigue excuse too.

Jaguares have drawn four of their last five

An away win is not the danger to this pick, a draw is. Jaguares have drawn four of their last five matches, including back-to-back 2-2 and 3-3 results, and they sit in a relegation fight on 18 points that gives every game an edge. A team that keeps splitting points rather than losing outright is exactly what turns a backed favourite into a shared point.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

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Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 2-011.2%Our score
  2. 1-012.1%Alternative
  3. 2-110.5%
  4. 1-110.5%
  5. 3-06.9%

Top five combined: 51.2%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeIndependiente MedellinxG2.06
AwayJaguaresxG0.78
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
6.0%
12%
11%
6.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.7%
1
4.9%
10%
11%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
0.5%
2
2.0%
4.5%
4.2%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.2%
3
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
<0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 50.3%49.7% No
Over 1.5 77.0%23.0% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 53.2%46.8% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 30.5%69.5% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Independiente Medellin win and over 2.5 goals39.4%
Independiente Medellin win and both teams score26.9%
Jaguares win and over 2.5 goals8.7%
Draw and under 2.5 goals16.5%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Independiente Medellin or draw84.3%
Jaguares or draw37.3%
Either team wins78.4%
Draw no bet: Independiente Medellin80.0%
Draw no bet: Jaguares20.0%
Independiente Medellin win to nil35.8%
Jaguares win to nil7.9%
Team goals
Independiente Medellin to score86.1%
Jaguares to score58.2%
Independiente Medellin over 1.5 goals57.4%
Jaguares over 1.5 goals21.4%
Independiente Medellin clean sheet41.8%
Jaguares clean sheet13.9%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

2 selections at 1.74

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
Head to Head

Head to Head

Jaguares
1 - 2
Independiente Medellin
March 15, 2026
Jaguares
0 - 1
Independiente Medellin
August 7, 2025
Independiente Medellin
1 - 1
Jaguares
July 31, 2025
Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
March 15, 2026Jaguares1 - 2Independiente Medellin
August 7, 2025Jaguares0 - 1Independiente Medellin
July 31, 2025Independiente Medellin1 - 1Jaguares
League Table

League Table

Primera AColombia · 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Atletico Nacional
1913153515+2040
2
Junior
1911263124+735
3
Deportivo Pasto
1910452925+434
4
America de Cali
1910362515+1033
5
Once Caldas
198923122+933
6
Deportes Tolima
198742717+1031
7
Santa Fe
197842922+729
8
Internacional de Bogota
197752626028
8
La Equidad FC
197752626028
9
Deportivo Cali
197662016+427
10
Millonarios
197573123+826
11
Independiente Medellin
197572624+226
12
Águilas Doradas
197572025-526
12
Rionegro Aguilas
197572025-526
13
Bucaramanga
195862620+623
14
Llaneros
1941051720-322
15
Fortaleza FC
195772227-522
16
Jaguares
1953112033-1318
17
Alianza Valledupar
193881327-1417
17
Alianza Petrolera
193881327-1417
18
Chico
1952121532-1717
19
Cucuta
193792235-1316
19
Cúcuta Deportivo
193792235-1316
20
Deportivo Pereira
1917111532-1710
Primera A - League Table
PositionTeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencePointsForm
1Atletico Nacional19131535152040WWLWW
2Junior1911263124735LLLWW
3Deportivo Pasto1910452925434LLLLL
4America de Cali19103625151033WWLDW
5Once Caldas198923122933DWDLW
6Deportes Tolima1987427171031WWLLW
7Santa Fe197842922729DLLDW
8Internacional de Bogota197752626028LLLLW
8La Equidad FC197752626028
9Deportivo Cali197662016427LWDWL
10Millonarios197573123826WLDWL
11Independiente Medellin197572624226WWLWW
12Águilas Doradas197572025-526WWWDL
12Rionegro Aguilas197572025-526
13Bucaramanga195862620623DWLDL
14Llaneros1941051720-322DWLDL
15Fortaleza FC195772227-522DDWLL
16Jaguares1953112033-1318LLWDL
17Alianza Valledupar193881327-1417LDDDL
17Alianza Petrolera193881327-1417
18Chico1952121532-1717LWLLW
19Cucuta193792235-1316LLDLW
19Cúcuta Deportivo193792235-1316
20Deportivo Pereira1917111532-1710DLLWL