Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Prediction - September 21, 2026

Primera AColombiaFull time
Llaneros
2:0
Atletico Nacional
Correct scoreOur pick
0-1

Alternative:1-1

Goals: Under 3.51.27Won

Bookmaker odds

Home4.00price falling, opened at 4.20
Draw3.34price rising, opened at 3.31
Away1.81price rising, opened at 1.69

Market move since Sep 18. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.29price rising, opened at 1.28
Under 1.53.03price falling, opened at 3.10
Over 2.51.90price rising, opened at 1.87
Under 2.51.73price falling, opened at 1.75
Over 3.53.15
Under 3.51.27
Both teams to score
Yes1.80price rising, opened at 1.78
No1.86price rising, opened at 1.84
Odd/Even
Odd1.87
Even1.83
First to score
Home2.49price falling, opened at 2.55
No goal11.00price rising, opened at 7.00
Away1.60price rising, opened at 1.53
Handicap
Home +0.51.91
Away -0.51.79
Corners
Over 9.51.87
Under 9.51.72

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional?

The model's leading scoreline is 0 - 1, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Atletico Nacional are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-9Methodology

Match highlights

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Match analysis

Llaneros have failed to score more than once in four of their last five matches, and that toothless home form is the base Superior is building on. The model backs under 3.5 goals in Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional on 21 September, priced at 1.27 with 76 percent confidence.

Llaneros have scored more than once just once in five games

Their last five reads three losses, a draw and no wins, with home defeats to Deportes Tolima (1-2) and Millonarios (0-2) either side of a 1-1 draw with Quindio. A side that has managed one goal or none in four of five outings gives this total very little to work with before Nacional even kick off.

Atletico Nacional have controlled three of their last five wins by one goal

Nacional's away average of 2.4 goals a game looks dangerous on paper, but three of their five results have been a 3-2, a 2-1 and a 2-0 shutout at Rionegro Aguilas, all single-margin games rather than shootouts. Table leaders chasing the title rarely need to run up the score against a side sitting 14th.

Atletico Nacional put five past Alianza Petrolera two weeks ago

That 5-1 away win is exactly the kind of scoreline that beats this price by itself, six goals in one afternoon. If Nacional's in-form attack clicks the same way against a Llaneros defence that has shipped two goals in three of its last five games, the total could clear four without much trouble.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

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Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 0-113.1%Our score
  2. 1-111.7%Alternative
  3. 0-210.3%
  4. 1-29.9%
  5. 0-08.1%

Top five combined: 53.1%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeLlanerosxG0.88
AwayAtletico NacionalxG1.60
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
8.1%
7.1%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
1
13%
12%
5.6%
1.6%
0.4%
<0.1%
<0.1%
2
10%
9.9%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
3
5.5%
4.9%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
0.2%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 47.9%52.1% No
Over 1.5 71.7%28.3% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 46.4%53.6% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 24.3%75.7% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Llaneros win and over 2.5 goals11.2%
Llaneros win and both teams score9.7%
Atletico Nacional win and over 2.5 goals30.1%
Draw and under 2.5 goals19.8%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Llaneros or draw46.5%
Atletico Nacional or draw78.3%
Either team wins75.1%
Draw no bet: Llaneros28.8%
Draw no bet: Atletico Nacional71.2%
Llaneros win to nil12.0%
Atletico Nacional win to nil32.0%
Team goals
Llaneros to score59.9%
Atletico Nacional to score79.9%
Llaneros over 1.5 goals23.6%
Atletico Nacional over 1.5 goals47.5%
Llaneros clean sheet20.1%
Atletico Nacional clean sheet40.1%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

2 selections at 1.74

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional
Head to Head

Head to Head

Atletico Nacional
2 - 0
Llaneros
March 14, 2026
Llaneros
0 - 3
Atletico Nacional
October 31, 2025
Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
March 14, 2026Atletico Nacional2 - 0Llaneros
October 31, 2025Llaneros0 - 3Atletico Nacional
League Table

League Table

Primera AColombia · 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Atletico Nacional
1913153515+2040
2
Junior
1911263124+735
3
Deportivo Pasto
1910452925+434
4
America de Cali
1910362515+1033
5
Once Caldas
198923122+933
6
Deportes Tolima
198742717+1031
7
Santa Fe
197842922+729
8
Internacional de Bogota
197752626028
8
La Equidad FC
197752626028
9
Deportivo Cali
197662016+427
10
Millonarios
197573123+826
11
Independiente Medellin
197572624+226
12
Águilas Doradas
197572025-526
12
Rionegro Aguilas
197572025-526
13
Bucaramanga
195862620+623
14
Llaneros
1941051720-322
15
Fortaleza FC
195772227-522
16
Jaguares
1953112033-1318
17
Alianza Valledupar
193881327-1417
17
Alianza Petrolera
193881327-1417
18
Chico
1952121532-1717
19
Cucuta
193792235-1316
19
Cúcuta Deportivo
193792235-1316
20
Deportivo Pereira
1917111532-1710
Primera A - League Table
PositionTeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencePointsForm
1Atletico Nacional19131535152040WWLWW
2Junior1911263124735LLLWW
3Deportivo Pasto1910452925434LLLLL
4America de Cali19103625151033WWLDW
5Once Caldas198923122933DWDLW
6Deportes Tolima1987427171031WWLLW
7Santa Fe197842922729DLLDW
8Internacional de Bogota197752626028LLLLW
8La Equidad FC197752626028
9Deportivo Cali197662016427LWDWL
10Millonarios197573123826WLDWL
11Independiente Medellin197572624226WWLWW
12Águilas Doradas197572025-526WWWDL
12Rionegro Aguilas197572025-526
13Bucaramanga195862620623DWLDL
14Llaneros1941051720-322DWLDL
15Fortaleza FC195772227-522DDWLL
16Jaguares1953112033-1318LLWDL
17Alianza Valledupar193881327-1417LDDDL
17Alianza Petrolera193881327-1417
18Chico1952121532-1717LWLLW
19Cucuta193792235-1316LLDLW
19Cúcuta Deportivo193792235-1316
20Deportivo Pereira1917111532-1710DLLWL