Toluca vs Austin Prediction - August 27, 2026

Leagues CupWorldFull time
Toluca
2:0
Austin
Projected scoreOur pick
1-2

Alternative:2-2

Goals: Over 2.51.75Lost

Bookmaker odds

Home1.68price rising, opened at 1.51
Draw3.76price falling, opened at 4.10
Away4.84price falling, opened at 6.21

Market move since Aug 25. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.18price rising, opened at 1.17
Under 1.53.92price falling, opened at 4.05
Over 2.51.73price rising, opened at 1.70
Under 2.52.07price falling, opened at 2.11
Over 3.52.68price rising, opened at 2.61
Under 3.51.37price falling, opened at 1.39
Both teams to score
Yes1.69price falling, opened at 1.77
No2.05price rising, opened at 1.95
Odd/Even
Odd1.88price rising, opened at 1.87
Even1.80price falling, opened at 1.81
Handicap
Home -0.751.80
Away +0.751.86

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Toluca vs Austin?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 2, with 2-2 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Toluca are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-3Methodology

Match highlights

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Match analysis

Austin are playing their fourth match in fourteen days heading into this Leagues Cup trip. Superior's model still projects them to edge Toluca 1-2 on 27 August, with 2-2 next in line, with Austin's attack rating of 6.8 marginally the higher of the two even carrying that workload.

Austin are into their fourth match in a fortnight

A packed schedule usually favors the side with fewer games, yet Austin's attack rating of 6.8 remains higher than Toluca's own defence rating of 6.3, and their 1.8 goals-a-game average tops Toluca's 1.6.

Toluca won their last match away at Querétaro

Toluca beat Club Querétaro 2-1 on the road last time out, while Austin were held to a 1-1 draw at Philadelphia Union. Both sides arrive scoring, which is why the model's alternative, a 2-2 draw, sits close behind the headline projection.

The extra fixture could still catch up with Austin

Four matches in fourteen days is a heavy load for any squad, and if that workload blunts Austin's attack late on, Toluca's own home form is enough to turn this into a home win instead of the projected away scoreline.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

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Post match archive

Grade: LOST

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 1-27.8%Projected
  2. 2-27.2%Alternative
  3. 1-16.9%
  4. 2-16.4%
  5. 1-35.9%

Top five combined: 34.2%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeTolucaxG1.84
AwayAustinxG2.25
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
1.7%
3.1%
2.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
1
3.7%
6.9%
6.4%
3.9%
1.8%
0.7%
0.3%
2
4.2%
7.8%
7.2%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
0.3%
3
3.2%
5.9%
5.4%
3.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.8%
3.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
5
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
6+
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 75.3%24.7% No
Over 1.5 91.5%8.5% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 77.6%22.4% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 58.5%41.5% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Toluca win and over 2.5 goals26.3%
Toluca win and both teams score23.3%
Austin win and over 2.5 goals39.8%
Draw and under 2.5 goals8.6%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Toluca or draw52.2%
Austin or draw67.9%
Either team wins79.9%
Draw no bet: Toluca40.2%
Draw no bet: Austin59.8%
Toluca win to nil8.8%
Austin win to nil14.2%
Team goals
Toluca to score84.2%
Austin to score89.5%
Toluca over 1.5 goals55.0%
Austin over 1.5 goals65.9%
Toluca clean sheet10.5%
Austin clean sheet15.8%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

Lost

2 selections at 1.97

See the ticket

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Expected formations

Toluca: 4-2-3-1(predicted)Austin: 3-4-2-1(predicted)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Toluca vs Austin