New Mexico United vs Lexington Prediction - August 27, 2026
Alternative:1-0
Goals: Under 3.51.42Won
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Lexington?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: New Mexico United are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
New Mexico United and Lexington have met three times in just over a year, with the head-to-head producing 5, 3 and 3 goals, and Superior's Under 3.5 goals pick for their USL Championship meeting on 27 August is priced at 1.42 with 73 percent confidence. Both sides go into the match on four days' rest, and two of those three previous meetings stayed under this exact line.
Two of the last three meetings stayed under 3.5
New Mexico United and Lexington have shared three results worth 1-4, 2-1 and 2-1, and only the most one-sided of those, a 4-1 away win for New Mexico United in July, cleared this line. New Mexico United are averaging 2.2 goals scored across their own last five and Lexington 1.2, a combined 3.4 that sits just under the number Superior is backing here.
New Mexico United beat this same opponent 4-1 away
New Mexico United put five past Monterey Bay and four past this same Lexington side in their two highest-scoring outings this run, both results that would have beaten this exact bet. Lexington have also found the net in four of their own last five matches. This bet loses if the match produces four goals or more, and New Mexico United's own 4-1 win over this same opponent in July shows that kind of scoreline is not unprecedented between these two sides.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksPremium model depth
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Grade: WON
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-112.4%Projected
- 1-010.5%Alternative
- 2-18.8%
- 0-18.8%
- 2-07.5%
Top five combined: 48.0%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
Lost2 selections at 1.97
See the ticket
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 15, 2026 | Lexington | 1 - 4 | New Mexico United |
| September 28, 2025 | New Mexico United | 2 - 1 | Lexington |
| June 14, 2025 | Lexington | 2 - 1 | New Mexico United |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | +10 | 40 | ||
| 1 | 18 | +14 | 38 | ||
| 2 | 18 | +13 | 30 | ||
| 2 | 20 | +9 | 37 | ||
| 3 | 22 | +2 | 35 | ||
| 3 | 17 | +8 | 28 | ||
| 4 | 18 | +1 | 27 | ||
| 4 | 21 | +7 | 35 | ||
| 5 | 18 | 0 | 26 | ||
| 5 | 22 | +2 | 35 | ||
| 6 | 21 | +9 | 32 | ||
| 6 | 19 | -7 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 22 | +1 | 31 | ||
| 7 | 16 | +6 | 22 | ||
| 8 | 16 | -1 | 21 | ||
| 8 | 22 | +5 | 31 | ||
| 9 | 17 | -4 | 20 | ||
| 9 | 22 | -4 | 29 | ||
| 10 | 17 | -8 | 18 | ||
| 10 | 22 | +1 | 29 | ||
| 11 | 17 | -3 | 17 | ||
| 11 | 23 | -3 | 27 | ||
| 12 | 23 | -17 | 17 | ||
| 12 | 17 | -15 | 13 | ||
| 13 | 19 | -28 | 8 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 40 | LWLWL |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 38 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 30 | WLDLW |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 37 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Orange County SC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 35 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Detroit City | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 28 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Louisville City | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 27 | LWLWD |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 35 | WDWLW |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 26 | WLLWL |
| 5 | San Antonio | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 35 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 32 | WWDWL |
| 6 | Miami FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 22 | DLLWD |
| 7 | Colorado Springs | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 31 | LWWWL |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 | LWWLD |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 21 | LLLLW |
| 8 | Lexington | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 31 | WDWLW |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 20 | LDLDL |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 29 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WWDDL |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 30 | 1 | 29 | DDWLL |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 27 | LLLLW |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 17 | LLLDW |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 13 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 51 | -28 | 8 | LLDWD |
