Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction - August 25, 2026
Alternative:1-0
Goals: Under 3.51.36Won
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Leeds are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
Two Premier League sides who both carry defence ratings above 6.4 meet in the League Cup on 25 August, and that steadiness is why Superior backs Under 3.5 goals in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds at 1.36 with 67 percent confidence. The combined expected goals figure here sits at exactly 3.0.
Forest and Leeds are both carrying defence ratings above 6.4
Nottingham Forest's defence rating of 6.4 and Leeds's 6.6 are two of the steadier defensive numbers across this pull, and both sides have kept the concession column low domestically even while playing continental football in midweek. That combination of measured defensive strength feeds directly into the model's below-3.5 projection for this cup tie.
Leeds have won four of their last five matches
Leeds arrive on the back of wins over FC Augsburg (4-0) and RB Leipzig (2-0), with their only loss a 3-0 defeat at West Ham. Forest have mixed results in Europe, including a 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen, but a domestic cup tie between two Premier League sides carries less incentive to chase a high-scoring afternoon than either team's European nights.
The last two meetings between these sides both finished 3-1
Leeds won 3-1 in February and Forest won 3-1 back in November, and both of those results landed on exactly four goals, one more than this line allows. If either side's attack repeats that scoreline instead of the tighter numbers from their most recent form, this goes over rather than under.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksPremium model depth
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Grade: WON
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-111.4%Projected
- 1-08.9%Alternative
- 0-08.0%
- 2-18.0%
- 0-17.3%
Top five combined: 43.6%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
Lost2 selections at 1.97
See the ticket
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest | 0 - 1 | Leeds |
| February 6, 2026 | Leeds | 3 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| November 9, 2025 | Nottingham Forest | 3 - 1 | Leeds |
