Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München Prediction - August 22, 2026

Super CupGermanyFull time
Borussia Dortmund
1:2
Bayern München
Projected scoreOur pick
1-2

Alternative:1-1

Goals: Under 3.51.99Won

Bookmaker odds

Home5.10price rising, opened at 4.68
Draw4.44price rising, opened at 4.24
Away1.58price falling, opened at 1.66

Market move since Aug 20. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.09price rising, opened at 1.06
Under 1.57.40price rising, opened at 6.05
Over 2.51.29price falling, opened at 1.33
Under 2.53.58price rising, opened at 2.98
Over 3.51.74price falling, opened at 1.89
Under 3.52.08price rising, opened at 1.91
Both teams to score
Yes1.44price rising, opened at 1.39
No2.79price falling, opened at 2.81
Odd/Even
Odd1.93price rising, opened at 1.89
Even1.82price rising, opened at 1.81
Handicap
Home +12.00
Away -11.80

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 2, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Bayern München are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-3Methodology

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Premium model depth

Unlocked after full time

Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 1-28.2%Projected
  2. 1-16.9%Alternative
  3. 1-36.6%
  4. 0-26.0%
  5. 2-25.7%

Top five combined: 33.4%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeBorussia DortmundxG1.87
AwayBayern MünchenxG2.84
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
1
2.6%
4.8%
4.5%
2.8%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
2
3.6%
6.8%
6.3%
3.9%
1.8%
0.7%
0.3%
3
3.5%
6.4%
6.0%
3.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.3%
4
2.5%
4.6%
4.3%
2.7%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
5
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
6+
1.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 79.6%20.4% No
Over 1.5 94.9%5.1% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 84.9%15.1% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 69.2%30.8% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Borussia Dortmund win and over 2.5 goals21.0%
Borussia Dortmund win and both teams score19.4%
Bayern München win and over 2.5 goals52.2%
Draw and under 2.5 goals5.7%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Borussia Dortmund or draw41.6%
Bayern München or draw75.7%
Either team wins82.7%
Draw no bet: Borussia Dortmund29.4%
Draw no bet: Bayern München70.6%
Borussia Dortmund win to nil4.9%
Bayern München win to nil14.6%
Team goals
Borussia Dortmund to score84.5%
Bayern München to score94.2%
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals55.6%
Bayern München over 1.5 goals77.6%
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet5.8%
Bayern München clean sheet15.5%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Today's acca

Lost

2 selections at 1.97

See the ticket
Prediction, preview and head to head: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München
Head to Head

Head to Head

Borussia Dortmund
2 - 3
Bayern München
February 28, 2026
Bayern München
2 - 1
Borussia Dortmund
October 18, 2025
Bayern München
2 - 2
Borussia Dortmund
April 12, 2025
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
February 28, 2026Borussia Dortmund2 - 3Bayern München
October 18, 2025Bayern München2 - 1Borussia Dortmund
April 12, 2025Bayern München2 - 2Borussia Dortmund