Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction

Projected scoreOur pick

0-1

Alternative:1-1

Goals: Under 3.51.26Won

Bookmaker odds

Home3.87

Draw3.26

Away1.98

Market move since Aug 13. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets

Total goals

Over 1.51.36

Under 1.53.00

Over 2.52.22

Under 2.51.62

Over 3.53.98

Under 3.51.22

Both teams to score

Yes1.93

No1.82

Odd/Even

Odd1.93

Even1.82

Handicap

Home +0.252.03

Away -0.251.78

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

The model's leading scoreline is 0 - 1, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Deportivo Maldonado are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Generated Aug 13, 2026, 00:04 UTCModel CS-3Methodology

Why this prediction

Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado average 1.6 goals a match between them, against a line of 3.5.

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books

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Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

0-111.2%Projected
1-111.2%Alternative
0-08.6%
0-28.1%
1-28.1%

Top five combined: 47.2%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeProgresoxG0.95

AwayDeportivo MaldonadoxG1.33

10%

9.7%

4.6%

1.5%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

14%

13%

6.2%

2.0%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

9.0%

8.6%

4.1%

1.3%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

4.0%

3.8%

1.8%

0.6%

0.1%

0.0%

1.3%

0.6%

0.2%

0.0%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 45.2%54.8% No

Over 1.5 66.5%33.5% Under 1.5

Over 2.5 39.9%60.1% Under 2.5

Over 3.5 19.7%80.3% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Progreso win and over 2.5 goals12.5%

Progreso win and both teams score10.6%

Deportivo Maldonado win and over 2.5 goals22.7%

Draw and under 2.5 goals23.1%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets

Progreso or draw54.7%

Deportivo Maldonado or draw73.1%

Either team wins72.1%

Draw no bet: Progreso37.2%

Draw no bet: Deportivo Maldonado62.8%

Progreso win to nil16.3%

Deportivo Maldonado win to nil28.3%

Team goals

Progreso to score61.5%

Deportivo Maldonado to score73.5%

Progreso over 1.5 goals24.7%

Deportivo Maldonado over 1.5 goals38.3%

Progreso clean sheet26.5%

Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet38.5%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Today's acca

Lost

2 selections at 1.97

See the ticket

Prediction, preview and head to head: Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado

Head to Head

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: Head-to-Head History
Date	Home	Score	Away
July 18, 2026	Progreso	1 - 0	Deportivo Maldonado
February 14, 2026	Deportivo Maldonado	2 - 0	Progreso

League Table

Primera División - AperturaUruguay · 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Racing Montevideo	26	13	10	3	32	19	+13	49
2	Peñarol Montevideo	25	14	5	6	37	21	+16	47
3	Deportivo Maldonado	26	13	7	6	40	26	+14	46
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	23	16	+7	27
4	Atletico Torque	25	13	5	7	42	29	+13	44
5	Wanderers	26	12	6	8	34	31	+3	42
6	Club Nacional	26	13	2	11	37	33	+4	41
7	Liverpool Montevideo	26	10	9	7	35	24	+11	39
8	Central Espanol	26	10	6	10	29	32	-3	36
9	Albion FC	26	9	7	10	35	31	+4	34
10	Cerro Largo	26	8	8	10	27	28	-1	32
11	Juventud	26	8	6	12	29	35	-6	30
12	Boston River	26	8	6	12	25	34	-9	30
13	Defensor Sporting	26	6	10	10	21	29	-8	28
14	Cerro	26	7	5	14	18	40	-22	26
15	Danubio	26	4	12	10	22	32	-10	24
16	Progreso	26	5	4	17	19	38	-19	19

Primera División - Apertura - League Table
Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points	Form
1	Racing Montevideo	26	13	10	3	32	19	13	49	WLDDD
2	Peñarol Montevideo	25	14	5	6	37	21	16	47
3	Deportivo Maldonado	26	13	7	6	40	26	14	46	DLDWW
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	23	16	7	27	WWDWL
4	Atletico Torque	25	13	5	7	42	29	13	44	LWWLW
5	Wanderers	26	12	6	8	34	31	3	42	WWWDW
6	Club Nacional	26	13	2	11	37	33	4	41	LDWLW
7	Liverpool Montevideo	26	10	9	7	35	24	11	39	DWLDW
8	Central Espanol	26	10	6	10	29	32	-3	36	DLDDW
9	Albion FC	26	9	7	10	35	31	4	34	DLDWL
10	Cerro Largo	26	8	8	10	27	28	-1	32	LWDDW
11	Juventud	26	8	6	12	29	35	-6	30	DWLDL
12	Boston River	26	8	6	12	25	34	-9	30	LLDDL
13	Defensor Sporting	26	6	10	10	21	29	-8	28	LDDDL
14	Cerro	26	7	5	14	18	40	-22	26	WWLLW
15	Danubio	26	4	12	10	22	32	-10	24	DLDDD
16	Progreso	26	5	4	17	19	38	-19	19	WLLWL

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction - August 16, 2026

Bookmaker odds

What is the prediction for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Why this prediction

Markets to consider

Premium model depth

Scoreline Depth

Market Probability View

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Correlated combos

More Primera División - Apertura Predictions

Head to Head

League Table