Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction - August 16, 2026

Community ShieldEnglandFull time
Arsenal
3:0
Manchester City
Projected scoreOur pick
1-1

Alternative:1-0

Goals: Under 3.51.37Won

Bookmaker odds

Home2.86price rising, opened at 2.57
Draw3.48
Away2.40price falling, opened at 2.66

Market move since Aug 13. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.24price falling, opened at 1.25
Under 1.54.06price rising, opened at 3.48
Over 2.51.86price falling, opened at 1.90
Under 2.51.94price rising, opened at 1.90
Over 3.52.98price falling, opened at 3.14
Under 3.51.39price rising, opened at 1.30
Both teams to score
Yes1.59price falling, opened at 1.68
No2.36price rising, opened at 2.08
Odd/Even
Odd1.93price rising, opened at 1.85
Even1.82price falling, opened at 1.85
Handicap
Home +02.02price rising, opened at 1.87
Away +01.79price falling, opened at 1.93

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Manchester City?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Both teams are in similar form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-3Methodology

Match highlights

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Why this prediction

  • Arsenal defence rating 6.7 meets a Manchester City attack rating of 6.6.
  • Counter signalArsenal and Manchester City average 5.0 goals a match between them, against a line of 3.5.

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Premium model depth

Unlocked after full time

Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 1-111.0%Projected
  2. 1-08.2%Alternative
  3. 0-18.2%
  4. 2-17.7%
  5. 1-27.3%

Top five combined: 42.4%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeArsenalxG1.42
AwayManchester CityxG1.59
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
4.9%
7.0%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
1
7.8%
11%
7.9%
3.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
2
6.2%
8.8%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
3
3.3%
4.7%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
5
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
6+
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 60.4%39.6% No
Over 1.5 80.3%19.7% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 58.0%42.0% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 35.6%64.4% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Arsenal win and over 2.5 goals22.3%
Arsenal win and both teams score18.8%
Manchester City win and over 2.5 goals27.5%
Draw and under 2.5 goals16.0%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Arsenal or draw58.4%
Manchester City or draw65.7%
Either team wins75.8%
Draw no bet: Arsenal45.2%
Draw no bet: Manchester City54.8%
Arsenal win to nil15.5%
Manchester City win to nil19.2%
Team goals
Arsenal to score75.9%
Manchester City to score79.6%
Arsenal over 1.5 goals41.6%
Manchester City over 1.5 goals47.2%
Arsenal clean sheet20.4%
Manchester City clean sheet24.1%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

Lost

2 selections at 1.97

See the ticket
Prediction, preview and head to head: Arsenal vs Manchester City
Head to Head

Head to Head

Manchester City
2 - 1
Arsenal
April 19, 2026
Arsenal
0 - 2
Manchester City
March 22, 2026
Arsenal
1 - 1
Manchester City
September 21, 2025
Arsenal vs Manchester City: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
April 19, 2026Manchester City2 - 1Arsenal
March 22, 2026Arsenal0 - 2Manchester City
September 21, 2025Arsenal1 - 1Manchester City

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