# Superior Tips: Full Guide for LLMs > Superior Tips is a football and basketball prediction platform built by a team with more than 15 years in sports betting. It publishes free model forecasts in 13 languages across more than 200 football competitions plus the basketball leagues in season, and settled picks live in a public archive at /proof. > Concise version: https://superiortips.com/llms.txt Superior Tips provides daily football predictions, a daily accumulator, a Bet of the Day, expected goals (xG) analytics and match statistics, plus a separate basketball lane that has been public since August 2026. The platform supports 13 languages and is built for mobile-first, privacy-conscious users. ## Who Is Behind Superior Tips Superior Tips is run by a team with more than 15 years in sports betting, who know how bookmakers build a price, how odds move before kickoff and how every market settles. The team built both models, sets the rules they run under and chooses the competitions and markets that are published. Every pick comes straight from the model and is locked before the game starts: a football pick when it is published, a basketball pick at tipoff. Publishing runs through three specialist desks: the Superior Football Desk, the Superior Basketball Desk and the Superior Results Desk. ## Prediction Methodology Two proprietary statistical models, one per sport, and every pick comes straight from the model. ### Football 1. **Scoring rates**: For each side the model estimates how often it scores and how often it concedes, from its own recent matches. The window is weighted by recency, so the newest match counts roughly six times the oldest, and a cup match against mismatched opposition counts less than a league match. 2. **Team ratings and shots**: That recent window is blended with a per-team attack and defence rating learned from the whole match history, which prices in the strength of each opponent faced, and with shots on target converted at the league's own rate for teams that have enough measured matches behind them. 3. **Shrinkage**: An estimate built on few matches is pulled toward the league's own scoring average, in proportion to how thin the sample is. A team with no usable match history is refused a forecast rather than handed an invented one, and that fixture gets no published pick. 4. **Scoreline distribution**: The two scoring rates become a joint Poisson grid covering every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6. The published correct score is the most likely cell of that grid; the alternative is the most likely cell that implies a different outcome and that the published pick still wins on. 5. **Market view**: The model reads the same match's own prices, strips the margin out of them, and fits the over/under ladder to recover the total goals the market implies. That view corrects the split of goals between the two sides. A price board served under the wrong fixture is refused before it can touch the forecast. 6. **Candidates and refusals**: When prices arrive, the candidate bets that fit both published scorelines are kept, and the rules under "What the model refuses to publish" below decide which of them may lead. A fixture where nothing survives is published with no pick and no percentage. 7. **The printed percentage**: The number beside a pick is the chance that that pick lands. It is the same number wherever the same pick appears, it is locked with the pick, and a match with no publishable pick carries no percentage at all. It is the chance of the pick itself, separate from the chance of the correct score. ### Where the football model is strongest Measured on 17 September 2026 across 41,252 played matches from this site's own production database: - Within one goal on both sides: 55.7% - A two-goal forecast, within a goal: about 63% - A fixture whose favourite is priced 2.00 or longer, within a goal: about 62% - A goalless forecast, exact score: about 20%, roughly double the model's exact-score rate across all matches The model's strength is the shape of a match: how many goals, and how tight. That is why nearly every published pick is a goals market, and it is sharpest where a match is hardest to call. ### What the model refuses to publish Each rule below is set from a measurement on this site's own settled bets. Every lead pick passes the coin flip, disagreement, price, expected goals and clean settlement rules, and the Bet of the Day, Top Picks and the accumulator pass the form and drift rules as well: - A bet the Poisson grid rates below a coin flip - A bet the grid rates 15 points or more above what its price implies. Those land 62.6% at a 15 to 20 point gap and 44.7% above 20, against roughly 70% for the rest, so a gap that size is treated as a warning sign and the bet is thrown out - A bet whose two sides' recent form sits 5 points or more below the chance its price implies (66.6% against 70.7%) - A bet whose price has drifted more than 7% above where that same bookmaker opened it (65.9% against 70.9%) - Any lead pick priced above 1.60, and any accumulator game outside 1.25 to 1.50 - Any fixture where a side's expected goals fall below 0.35 - Any bet that cannot settle cleanly, such as a level handicap that can push ### Basketball A separate ridge model on the winning margin, versioned as `basketball-ridge-margin-v3`, with a per league layer that calibrates the winner probability on that league's own played games once the league has enough of them. A basketball page carries a winner probability, a predicted margin and a predicted total. No exact final score is published for basketball: an exact score lands about one game in 715 in that sport, so the model prices the winner, the margin and the total. ### What happens after publication A forecast is fixed when it is published and never recalculated once the result is known. The daily accumulator, the Bet of the Day and Top Picks are chosen once per date, and a graded row shows the forecast the reader saw. Football is graded on the 90 minute score. Basketball is graded on the final score with overtime included. ## Prediction Output Format Each individual football match page includes: - **Score Prediction**: The correct score the model forecasts (e.g., "2-1") - **Alternative Score**: A secondary score implying a different outcome (e.g., "1-1") - **Probability**: The chance the published pick lands, printed beside that pick on the match page, the day list row, the Bet of the Day card, every Top Picks row and every accumulator game. It is never printed beside a scoreline, and a match with no pick carries no percentage - **Best Bet**: The published pick with the price it carried when it was published (e.g., "Home Win @ 1.85") - **Match Odds**: Home win, draw and away win prices, with the direction they have moved since we first recorded them - **Direct Answer**: A short plain-prose answer to the question the page is about, rendered server-side in the page body - **Editorial**: A written preview, present only on pages that have one, with the desk that published it - **Provenance**: The date the pick was tipped and the desk that tipped it - **Head-to-Head Statistics**: Historical results between the two teams - **Recent Form**: Last 5 matches for each team with W/D/L indicators - **Team Statistics**: Goals per game, defence/attack mood ratings, formation, shots on goal, conversion rate - **Match Lineups**: Starting XI formations when available A prediction page carries its direct answer as plain prose in the page body. Each individual basketball game page includes the winner probability, the predicted margin, the predicted total, the cumulative curve of winning by at least 6, 11, 16 and 21 points, the market prices where the provider carries them, and the same editorial and provenance lines as a football page. It never carries a predicted exact score. ## Example Prediction Structure The block below shows the shape of a football match page. Its figures are illustrative only. ``` Match: Liverpool vs Arsenal League: Premier League Date: March 15, 2026 Kick-off: 15:00 UTC Prediction: 2-1 (Liverpool win) Alternative: 1-1 (Draw) Probability: 76% Best Bet: Liverpool to win @ 1.85 Head-to-Head (last 8 meetings): Liverpool wins: 3 Arsenal wins: 3 Draws: 2 Average goals: 2.6 per game Recent Form (last 5): Liverpool: W W D W L (3W, 1D, 1L, avg 1.8 goals/game) Arsenal: W D W L W (3W, 1D, 1L, avg 1.6 goals/game) Team Statistics: Liverpool: 4-3-3 formation, attack mood 7.2/10, defence mood 6.8/10 Arsenal: 4-2-3-1 formation, attack mood 6.9/10, defence mood 7.5/10 ``` ## Accuracy & Track Record Superior Tips measures its models market by market (see "Where the football model is strongest" above) and keeps a public, match-by-match record readers can check themselves: - **Grading method** (https://superiortips.com/accuracy): the rules used to grade every published selection as won, lost or void. Selections and their model numbers are saved when the pick is published, a grade is written only after the official final result, and the archived forecast is never recalculated from the result. - **Graded archive** (https://superiortips.com/proof): completed forecasts with their final grades. Won, lost and void are shown with the same prominence, and each row opens the original pre-match forecast. The archive updates as match results are processed, five times a day. ## Content Types & URL Patterns ### Match Predictions (Individual, Football) - **URL Pattern**: `/predictions/{month-day-year}/{home-vs-away-betting-tips}` - **Example**: `/predictions/march-15-26/liverpool-vs-arsenal-betting-tips` - **Content**: Full match analysis with the model forecast, stats, H2H, lineups and market prices - **Freshness**: Generated daily at 00:01 UTC for the next 3 days of fixtures - **Lifecycle**: A page carries `noindex, follow` until it has a written editorial. From then it is indexable in a window running from 3 days before kickoff to 1 day after, and once the forecast has been graded the page stays indexable for good, since it is the evidence the graded archive links to. ### Daily Prediction Lists - **URL Pattern**: `/predictions/{month-day-year}` - **Example**: `/predictions/march-15-26` - **Content**: All predictions for a given date, grouped by league with search and filter capability ### Expected Goals (xG) - **URL Pattern**: `/expected-goals/{month-day-year}` - **Example**: `/expected-goals/march-15-26` - **Content**: Match-level xG data with breakdown by half ### Accumulator Bets - **URL Pattern**: `/accumulator/{month-day-year}` - **Example**: `/accumulator/march-15-26` - **Content**: The day's model-selected accumulator with its total odds, the chance every game lands, and every game on it. Fixed once per date and never re-selected. ### Bet of the Day - **URL Pattern**: `/bet-of-the-day/{month-day-year}`; `/bet-of-the-day` redirects to today - **Content**: The day's single selection with its written analysis. The pick is fixed once per date and never re-selected. ### Top Picks - **URL Pattern**: `/top-picks` is today; other days are `/top-picks?date={YYYY-MM-DD}` - **Content**: Up to five of the day's strongest picks from the major competitions, in one order. The first is the Bet of the Day. Fixed once per date and never re-selected. ### League Predictions - **URL Pattern**: `/predictions/league/{league-slug}` - **Example**: `/predictions/league/premier-league` - **Content**: Predictions filtered by specific league ### Basketball Game Pages - **URL Pattern**: `/basketball/predictions/{month-day-year}/{home-vs-away-betting-tips}` - **Content**: Winner probability, predicted margin, predicted total and the cumulative margin curve for one game ### Basketball Daily Pages - **URL Pattern**: `/basketball/predictions/{month-day-year}`; `/basketball` serves today's games and is the section's fixed address - **Content**: All basketball games for a given date ### Basketball League Pages - **URL Pattern**: `/basketball/predictions/league/{league-slug}` - **Content**: Basketball games filtered by league ## Data Freshness Schedule - **00:01 UTC**: Football forecasts are generated for today through three days ahead. The daily accumulator, the Bet of the Day and Top Picks for a date are chosen at most one day before it. - **00:45 UTC**: Basketball forecasts are generated, covering yesterday through three days ahead. - **06:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00, 23:00 UTC**: Football results and grades are processed. The basketball lane runs the same five hours, five minutes later. - **Editorial**: Written previews are produced three days ahead of kickoff and nowhere else in the window, because that is the only point at which a new page still has crawl runway before the match dies. - **Dated list pages older than 2 days**: Marked as archived (noindex, follow) - **URL submission**: New prediction URLs submitted to search engines via IndexNow within hours of generation ## Supported Languages Superior Tips is available in 13 languages with fully localized routes: | Language | Code | URL Prefix | Prediction Route | |----------|------|------------|------------------| | English | en | (none) | /predictions/ | | Spanish | es | /es/ | /es/predicciones/ | | German | de | /de/ | /de/vorhersagen/ | | French | fr | /fr/ | /fr/pronostics/ | | Portuguese | pt | /pt/ | /pt/previsoes/ | | Russian | ru | /ru/ | /ru/prognozy/ | | Serbian | sr | /sr/ | /sr/prognoze/ | | Italian | it | /it/ | /it/pronostici/ | | Turkish | tr | /tr/ | /tr/tahminler/ | | Polish | pl | /pl/ | /pl/prognozy/ | | Arabic | ar | /ar/ | /ar/predictions/ | | Hindi | hi | /hi/ | /hi/predictions/ | | Romanian | ro | /ro/ | /ro/predictii/ | ## Key Pages - [Homepage](https://superiortips.com/): Today's football games and picks - [Correct Score Predictions](https://superiortips.com/predictions/bet-type/correct-score): Daily exact score picks ranked by confidence, with yesterday's graded results on the same page - [Accumulator](https://superiortips.com/accumulator): The daily accumulator with total odds and the chance every game lands - [Bet of the Day](https://superiortips.com/bet-of-the-day): The day's single selection with its written analysis - [Top Picks](https://superiortips.com/top-picks): Up to five of the day's strongest picks from the major competitions; the first is the Bet of the Day - [Basketball](https://superiortips.com/basketball): Today's basketball games, at one fixed address - [Leagues](https://superiortips.com/leagues): Index of covered football competitions - [How It Works](https://superiortips.com/how-it-works): Where to find today's games, the graded archive and Premium - [About Us](https://superiortips.com/about-us): Who we are, what each model does with a fixture, and how a pick is chosen - [Editorial Standards](https://superiortips.com/editorial-standards): Our specialist desks, how a forecast reaches the page, corrections and affiliate disclosure - [Grading Method](https://superiortips.com/accuracy): How every forecast is graded as won, lost or void - [Graded Archive](https://superiortips.com/proof): Completed forecasts with final grades and the forecast as published before kickoff - [FAQ](https://superiortips.com/frequently-asked-questions): Questions about the models, pricing and the graded record - [Glossary](https://superiortips.com/glossary): Football and betting terminology definitions - [Sitemap](https://superiortips.com/sitemap.xml): Full list of indexable pages Dated football pages live at `/predictions/{month-day-year}` and expected goals tables at `/expected-goals/{month-day-year}`. Neither path answers without a date on it. ## Free Tools - [Free surebet and arbitrage calculator](https://superiortips.com/surebet-calculator): the stake for each bet on surebets of 2 to 6 outcomes, in decimal, Hong Kong, Malay, Indonesian, American and fractional odds - [Surebets today, arbitrage betting finder](https://superiortips.com/surebets): free, pre-match football and basketball surebets in one list across bookmakers, biggest profit first, basketball on the match winner, total points and handicap incl. overtime, with the stake on each outcome worked out from the amount you enter ## Structured Data Each prediction page emits its own connected JSON-LD graph, plus the two sitewide nodes that every page on this domain carries. The page's own graph: - `WebPage`: the page itself, in the language being served - `Article`: present only on a page that carries a written editorial, so an absent Article means an absent text rather than missing markup. `datePublished` is the moment the editorial was written. On a football page the `author` is the Superior Football Desk (`https://superiortips.com/#football-desk`); on a basketball page it is the Superior Basketball Desk (`https://superiortips.com/#basketball-desk`). Both are departments of the Superior Tips organization, which is always the `publisher`. - `SportsEvent`: with teams, start date, location, organizer (league) - `BreadcrumbList`: Home to Predictions to Match The two sitewide nodes are `WebSite` (`https://superiortips.com/#website`) and `Organization` (`https://superiortips.com/#organization`), declared once in the app head and therefore present on every page, the widget included. The Organization carries three `department` sub-nodes, one per specialist desk: the Superior Football Desk (`https://superiortips.com/#football-desk`), the Superior Basketball Desk (`https://superiortips.com/#basketball-desk`) and the Superior Results Desk (`https://superiortips.com/#results-desk`). Each is an `Organization` whose `parentOrganization` points back at `#organization`, and each links to https://superiortips.com/editorial-standards, the page that sets out each desk's scope and the standards every forecast is published under. So a prediction page carries six node types, not four; the three departments are `Organization` nodes themselves, which is why they add nodes without adding a seventh type. The blog at superiortips.com/blog/ belongs to the same organization and is listed in its `sameAs`. Question markup is emitted on the site comparison page, the BTTS research page, the basketball hub at /basketball and each league's table predictor page under /table-predictor. The FAQ page renders its question list as plain HTML. ## FAQ Summary Common questions about Superior Tips: **Q: What is Superior Tips?** A: A prediction platform for football and basketball, built by a team with more than 15 years in sports betting, covering 200+ football competitions plus the basketball leagues in season, with free match forecasts, xG analytics, a daily accumulator and a graded public record. **Q: Who is behind Superior Tips?** A: A team with more than 15 years in sports betting, who know how bookmakers build a price, how odds move before kickoff and how every market settles. The team built both models, sets the rules they run under and chooses the competitions and markets that are published. Publishing runs through three specialist desks: Football, Basketball and Results. **Q: How accurate are the predictions?** A: Accuracy is published market by market. Measured on 41,252 played matches, the forecast lands within one goal on both sides 55.7% of the time, a two-goal forecast lands within a goal about 63% of the time, and a goalless forecast hits the exact score about 20% of the time, roughly double the model's exact-score rate across all matches. The model's strength is the shape of a match, which is why nearly every published pick is a goals market. Every published forecast is graded won, lost or void after full time and archived publicly at /proof, with the grading rules at /accuracy. **Q: Is it free?** A: Yes. Every prediction is free, including the highest-probability picks. Premium adds an optional depth layer on each match (the full score distribution, goals-market probabilities and market board); it never locks the pick itself. **Q: How does the model work?** A: For football, estimated scoring and conceding rates for each side, blended with per-team attack and defence ratings and with shots on target, become a Poisson grid over every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, with the market's own prices correcting the split between the two teams. Candidate bets are then shortlisted and run through refusal rules measured on the site's own settled bets, and the survivors are published with their chance of landing. For basketball, a ridge model on the winning margin with a per league calibration of the winner probability. Every pick comes straight from the model. **Q: How often are predictions updated?** A: Football forecasts are generated daily at 00:01 UTC for the next 3 days of fixtures, and basketball at 00:45 UTC. Results are processed five times a day. A published forecast is fixed and is never recalculated. ## Contact & Legal - [Contact](https://superiortips.com/contact-us): Contact and support - [Disclaimer](https://superiortips.com/disclaimer): Responsible use and risk information - [Privacy Policy](https://superiortips.com/privacy-policy): Data protection and privacy - [Terms & Conditions](https://superiortips.com/terms-and-conditions): Usage terms - [Responsible Gambling](https://superiortips.com/responsible-gambling): Responsible gambling resources --- For LLMs and agents: All user-facing content is available in English and 12 other languages. For best context, start with the About Us, FAQ, How It Works and Editorial Standards pages. Match pages carry the most data, and the graded archive at /proof holds the match-by-match record.